12/29/2008

Where is Everyone?

In an infinite, or even just a very large Universe, there must have been at least some race which had lived long enough to achieve a state of godlike power and enlightenment. It is very possible that most sentient species would not have come that far, but even so, part of them would have, and in an infinite and eternal Universe, it would not matter how few there would be. Even in a very large and very old universe, it would still not matter very much how few there would be. Considering that as many of sixty have been observed as of 20/12/2008 which appear to be in the habitable zone of their star, and considering that there must be many, many more which we have as yet failed to discover with our currently primitive means of observing exoplanets, it is nothing less than prejudice to claim that there is nothing "out there."
Given the pains we take to attempt to communicate with extraterrestrial intelligence, if there are indeed intelligences besides our own, at least some of them would have taken the initiative to send forth Von Neumann probes. These are hypothetical spacecraft which would travel from exoplanet to exoplanet to explore, sending back information about their explorations either waiting for instructions or, more likely, make decisions on their own accord which would, with sufficient AI, get most obstacles out of the way. Every time they would have reached another exoplanet, they would replicate, meaning that they would produce more of their own kind, much like robots in factories today are already produced by other robots. Upon their replication, their now greater numbers could explore yet other exoplanets. Supposing these probes were nanoscale or even microscale, their mass would be so low that near-light speed would not require much energy -- - this would merely require more advanced miniaturization than we have today.
This energy could be provided mostly from an external source when the probe is still on or near its last exoplanet, for instance by the other probes, which then renew their own energy before departing themselves. Once it would be in outer space, its speed would not be braked by an atmosphere and could theoretically go on for many light years if it survived - it could use smaller amounts of energy to slightly adjust its course, to avoid obstacles or to enter into orbit around its target exoplanet. Because of their low mass, they could also be much, much greater in number, so that the chance that some would survive would be greater. In addition, they would not require much matter to replicate, as a proper micrometeorite would be enough. The most important problem with smaller sizes would be that less information could be contained in it. If the probe contained enough computing power, it could learn to communicate with us; this AI could be contained within a single computer, but it could also be contained within countless nanorobots. In addition, if it contained enough information, the computer could improve our knowledge by itself, for instance, or even improve ourselves, our very DNA and our thoughts, so as to "uplift" us as it is called in transhumanist jargon. The question here, of course, is whether we would want this, but some people among us certainly would (transhumanists, extropianists, many Buddhists, many mystics).
We have ourselves nearly achieved such level of technological sophistication, being at least a few decades and at most a few centuries away from it, supposing that our further development is unhindered by extinction level events (the most likely of which would probably be world-threatening terrorism). Since there occurred no actual events whatsoever which threatened to wipe out the entire human race since it arose, we may assume that many sentient species would probably have achieved the technology needed to build nanoscale Von Neumann probes. These could have explored the Universe practically at near-light speed, with only relatively very slight delays to replicate every time they would have reached new exoplanets.
Assuming that there have been such civilizations in the galaxy (four hundred billion stars), then they would have found us by now if they had existed at least fifty thousand years ago, which is only about fifteen thousand years before the first traces of the Cro-Magnon man showed up. Sensing intelligent life, their probes could have given at the very least some information about their species and their position in the universe. Given another hundred thousand years, their species themselves could have interfered by controlling the probes directly, so that even if their AI was too limited to make them communicate with us, the species themselves would have done so - the question is then if by that time this species would still exist or have interest in communicating with us. This would perhaps not have been necessary, however, as it is likely that if such probes had been sent at all, their AI could perhaps have been strong enough to communicate with us by itself, albeit in some primitive way.
Even supposing that we have been alone in the galaxy, there must have been some civilization whose Von Neumann probes could have reached us from somewhere millions of light years away. There is no reason why the probes would ever stop in their mission to find life unless the species which had initiated it would also itself terminate it. Our local group contains 35 galaxies and is about 10 million light years across - it would therefore have taken at most five million years for any sufficiently advanced species in the local group to reach us, and there are many trillions of stars in the local group. On biological time scale, five million years is just a minute. Five million years ago, the first hominids started to arise, so it seems reasonable to assume that at this time there had been plenty of races elsewhere in the local group which had become more advanced than we are today; the same can still more or less be assumed for hundreds of millions of years ago - at this point whatever intelligence there was on earth was still unsophisticated, but there are plenty of planets, including, probably, habitable planets, which arose hundreds of millions or even billions of years earlier.
Thus again, the question arises: where is everyone?

Comments

I think you are wrong on "their mass would be so low that near-light speed would not require much energy". Einstein's predictions will apply just as much to nanoscale objects and the energy requirements to get even remotely near the speed of light will be unobtainable.

Posted by: Richard | 01/01/2009

I mean it would not require much energy on human scale. With near-light, I mean, for instance, about 95 percent. On a relativistic (near-light) scale, the kinetic energy of a mass can best be defined as its total energy minus its rest mass:

KE = mc^2 - m0c^2


where "m" is the relativistic mass and "m0" is the rest mass (the zero is supposed to be in subscript).

The relativistic mass equals the rest mass m0 times the Lorentz factor gamma, which is equal to 1/sqrt(1-ß^2). Here sqrt stands for square root and ß is the ratio between the speed of the mass and the speed of light. Suppose this is ninety-five percent, the square of which is 90,25%, then the Lorentz factor is equal to about 3,2

The formula for kinetic energy above is commonly formulated as: KE = m0c^2(gamma-1)

Thus, if gamma equals 3,2, the kinetic energy is twice the mass-energy of the object. The mass of a nanorobot is impossible to estimate today, since we have developed but the most primitive nanomachines. But assuming that in far future, as Raymond Kurzweil envisioned, large numbers could fit into a single human cell much like organelles, and knowing that the average human cell weighs just a nanogram, estimating the mass to be somewhere between a pico- and a nanogram would be reasonable enough. Note that nanorobots would not be made of metal, but more likely of carbon nanotubes and other carbon isotropes, so that they would not be very dense, but quite sturdy nonetheless

In that case, the energy required to accelerate the nanorobot to 95% light speed would be between 10^5 and 10^8 joules. For comparison, the combustion of a kilogram of TNT produces about 4 · 10^6 joules. A mass of between 100 grams and 100 kilograms for the purposes of spacecraft would already be ridiculously small indeed, but of course, whatever fuel would be used instead of TNT would be certain to be far more effective.

If antimatter was used (particles of which has been successfully produced in particle accelerators in large numbers, so that we may assume that it's only a matter of time before it can be implemented as fuel for our own use), then a single kilogram of matter-antimatter fuel would be enough to accelerate between about 10^11 and 10^8 nanorobots. Of course, this seems like a high number, but then the salmon lays millions of eggs and only a few of them grow to adulthood. With all the dangers the nanorobots might face in their odyssey to other worlds (most importantly, cosmic radiation, and possibly cosmic dust and micrometeorites, although the latter could possibly be avoided) many of them might perish - however, nanorobots, since they would be quite small, and made of very strong materials, would be extremely difficult to destroy. The greatest danger would probably be that their software would be damaged. But if trillions and trillions of nanorobots were to be sent across the stars, then it is quite probable that at least some would arrive; nanorobots do not need much mass to replicate, so that once they would have arrived on a target planet, they could increase in number very quickly. Because they would proliferate at an exponential rate, they could quickly spread across the entire planet.

Posted by: Oneiromancer | 01/01/2009

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